Joel (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} malkav_chan) wrote,@ 2007-04-05 10:51:00 |
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re: some predictions
A test of theory: A strict application of the Balance of Power theory in Asia sees the following.
1/ Taiwan will return to the PRC. This will occur when PRC can no longer be balanced against, which I will state as when Chinese real military spending is no. 1 in the region.
2/ DPRK will trigger a war in North East Asia. The DPRK is in the midst of a security dilemma, its 'defensive' nuclear capability will be seen in offensive terms by its peers. War is the only path to restoring balance.
observations:
These prediced outcomes are disheartening. If proven true in the next 20yrs, I will confirm myself as realist, else I still with current approach. Additionally, if I were a smart bean I would stick clear of Japan, both contingencies invovle Japan potentially getting hit again. Eek
A test of theory: A strict application of the Balance of Power theory in Asia sees the following.
1/ Taiwan will return to the PRC. This will occur when PRC can no longer be balanced against, which I will state as when Chinese real military spending is no. 1 in the region.
2/ DPRK will trigger a war in North East Asia. The DPRK is in the midst of a security dilemma, its 'defensive' nuclear capability will be seen in offensive terms by its peers. War is the only path to restoring balance.
observations:
These prediced outcomes are disheartening. If proven true in the next 20yrs, I will confirm myself as realist, else I still with current approach. Additionally, if I were a smart bean I would stick clear of Japan, both contingencies invovle Japan potentially getting hit again. Eek
